Predictions

(updated April, 2026)

There was a good discussion about predictions on TFF, The Foreseeable Future website, when it existed.

Table of Contents

The concept of the site was to allow users a way to use predictions to help them make decisions in their day-to-day lives by discriminating between who is making good and bad predictions. TFF was designed to allow users to tabulate and track predictions and keep a record of successes.

One of the functions was for tracking news stories. People might read and debate about those, inevitably making predictions about the eventual outcome of some event. If you could track those predictions, you'd see who the best "predictors" were, over time.

The forum could therefore be used to improve the usefulness of predictions and turn predictions into prognostications, a demonstration of how important predictions could be, if utilized properly.

Also, it would help solve a little game they play, where the news services present some intriguing story, and then... no follow up, no resolution, no "closure." Part of that is the lousy format and layout of newspapers, and now websites, and part of it is the lousy memory and attention span of the general public. When you save the output of many commenters, for example in the format of a web forum, you also are creating a great reference and resource.

From the site:

Organizing and tracking people's predictions allows us to see who's brought it to the table and who's just running his mouth. Often, someone's logic doesn't seem right, but can be proven by how it bears out. The truth must seem a little strange if we don't understand something, since it is something altogether new to our perceptions. Like the old quote says, "All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." That's the system. There's something obvious there: That system is pretty dumb!

Knowledge isn't much use unless you can make some type of predictions with it, and if your predictions consistently come true, it tends to confirm your knowledge.

Plus, it's dangerous to accept the ideas of "experts" without backing. All sorts of nonsense has come from self-styled experts over the years. These experts were no more accurate than the self-styled psychics. But, the concept of "experts" is exactly bass-ackwards. You become an expert, over time, by making accurate predictions, not by calling yourself an expert, then making outrageous predictions only supported by other self-styled "experts" and the gullible.

Ideally, you want prognostications, rather than just pell-mell predictions, since that implies that there's some rationale behind your prediction.

Prognostications in Science

We may have gone over this point ad nauseum, but it's something worth harping on: that science must be able to make prognostications, or it's only fortune-telling, and to list the steps along the way that lead to your prognostication becoming reality.

For example, they're forever touting their "scientific models." Now, if their models work, they should be able to accurately predict a future outcome based on that model. (But they don't, because if they did, they'd be out there constantly, shamelessly, promoting it.) This is how a model is tested, and if it fails, there is no theory, no science there!

Contrary evidence neutralizes all else, invalidating a model, which must be reworked or discarded.

These simple rules are clear enough, so the liars and con men had to obfuscate them. For example, one effective trick is presenting the subject, Mathematics, as a hard, almost insufferable, burden. They want you to feel awe for those "wizard" scientists who can actually do mathematics, to worship them as your betters. Of course, that's just one trick in their playbook.

An example just turned up in the news, describing how they're continuing their long con with "nuclear reactors." No evidence their plan will work, in fact only bigger and bigger failures, year after year. No one stops to think at all. They say they make energy when they fuse atoms in "nuclear fusion" — while at the same time saying they make energy when they break them apart in "nuclear fission!" And they keep failing with their grandiose plans for fusion, without ever stopping to question if their model might be wrong.

And now, billions or trillions later, they won't even be able to test their latest boondoggle for 15 years! They've created another new "fusion reactor," but it has accumulating expenses and delays. There's no evidence such thing will work, ever. Since their own fumblings prove their whole "nuclear model" and "nuclear science" is in error, we need to go back and reexamine all the fake science. It's a relief to see a lot of people are catching on to this long con that has had them bleeding the taxpayers dry for generations now.

The Prophecizers

We're Being Played

If you can predict things like "The Almighty smiting the west coast heathens with a catastrophic earthquake, 9.4," as one Cassandra divulged recently, you can predict the exact date and time, too. Otherwise, shut your traps, you dweebs, with these idiotic "prophecies."

Of course, if you keep making open-ended predictions about natural phenomena, the dullards will swoon when eventually, inevitably, one comes to pass. Bottom line, it's like the comedian asked, "Why does the psychic have to ask you your name?"

The Mock Predictors

A big reveal that should raise awareness was the mention that, often, when movies and books reflect future events, they weren't predicting, but unveiling an agenda. This is simple enough to fathom. Those who control the purse strings and political world have the kind of pull to engineer future events.

The Farce of Premature Prediction

This is real food for thought. Why is it that predictions of future tech and progress are so bogus? Videophones seem a natural extrapolation of telephones. Atomic flying cars seemed like a natural progression, too, but of course those proved completely impractical. The physics understanding wasn't there. For videophones, again, there was a misunderstanding of how far you can push your extrapolation (in this case, audio leading to video), without a complete understanding of the science and engineering involved. It took the invention of a whole new strategy, using a network, to allow for images with calls. Doing video over the phone lines just proved too difficult and unfeasible, until a system for shuttling huge quantities of data came along, the Internet, and transmitting video and images was just a natural part of that.

That's what the bad predictions mostly are, errant extrapolations, without any comprehension of emerging technologies.

Sometimes, there are political and social considerations. If you read the blog, The Future of Computing, it mentions how puzzling it is there isn't something like a "patrol robot" already on the market for consumer purchase. There, of course, they don't want you having anything too useful or capable of helping you defend yourself, and there's the motive of wanting to monopolize certain tech.

Success

Well that didn't take long...

This blog years ago predicted that automakers who don't embrace hybrid and instead go balls-to-the-wall electric will perish, or they'll be bought up and have other "issues." This doesn't occur in a vacuum, as we are to be forced out of cars into "15-minute cities."

Well, they are paying the piper for their grandiose electric dreams now, and indeed banking more on hybrids.

Summary:

Global automakers collectively absorbed at least $65 billion in losses and writedowns by early 2026 as demand failed to match aggressive 2021 forecasts. Legacy manufacturers have faced staggering losses due to high development costs, price wars, and the expiration of government incentives like the $7,500 tax credit in late 2025.

* Stellantis: Recorded the largest single financial blow, booking $27 billion (€22.2 billion) in writedowns in late 2025, according to reporting on Stellantis' strategic pullback.

* Ford: Its dedicated "Model e" unit has been a massive drain, losing approximately $37,000 per vehicle sold in early 2025. The company took a $19.5 billion charge to scale back its plans, as detailed by The New York Times.

* General Motors: Sustained a total $7.6 billion hit to its EV business by early 2026. GM's net income fell by over $3 billion in 2025 primarily due to these EV-related charges, as reported by WardsAuto.

* Volkswagen: Shelved its flagship "Trinity" EV platform, delaying it from 2026 to 2032 due to persistent software failures and weakening demand.

* Mercedes-Benz: Reported a 9% decline in EV sales for 2025 and has significantly increased spending on combustion engines to hedge against the slow transition.

* Volvo & Audi: Both have walked back "100% electric" deadlines. Volvo delayed its 2030 target, while Audi announced it will continue producing combustion cars until at least 2033.

* Aston Martin & Ferrari: Luxury brands have also retreated. Ferrari halved its 2030 EV sales goal to just 20%, while Aston Martin pushed its first EV launch back to 2027.

* Honda: Faced a writedown of $15.7 Billion (2.5 trillion yen) to restructure its EV business, leading to its first annual loss in nearly 70 years, as reported by Reuters. Because Honda cancelled the "0 Series" platform that was supposed to underpin the Afeela (joint project with Sony), SHM lost the technical "spine" of the car, making the project unviable. Analysts from Automotive News noted that Sony, like Apple before it, discovered that tech expertise alone cannot overcome the brutal economics and regulatory hurdles of auto manufacturing.

Industrial and Competitive Failures

* Job Losses: The U.S. auto sector saw over 50,000 job cuts since mid-2025 as factories were shuttered or "retooled" back to combustion/hybrid production.

* China's Dominance: Critics argue this "premature leap" wasted five years of capital, allowing Chinese brands like BYD to dominate the global market while Western giants struggled.

* Inventory Glut: Expensive EVs sat on lots for an average of 100 days in late 2024, forcing heavy discounting that further eroded profit margins.

Key Takeaway: The industry is currently in a "shuffling phase," moving away from pure battery EVs toward hybrids, which are now viewed as a critical "bridge technology" to generate the cash needed for long-term survival.

We also saw this one come to pass, in spirit at least. Hard to verify quantitatively since they fudge the numbers.

Crime will spike with 60% of the most heinous crimes committed by illegal immigrant invaders. They won't get any time but will be quickly released by Soros flunkies only to commit more crimes. On the other hand, US citizens who commit crimes will get lengthy prison sentences for democrats to say they're getting tough on crime.

And a similar situation with this. Marriage and birth rates have collapsed, and they say dating is "becoming more difficult and intentional."

If you're looking for romance, you'll find the pot has been scraped dry. Due to environmental contaminants and so on, and the consequent drastic reduction in fertility, men, even the privileged, should find the pickins slim.

Failed Predictions

• Harry Dent of the HS Dent Investment Management firm was pretty sure that 2024 would finally be the year that the United States bubble markets collapse.
• "The Biden admin will do everything in its power to ensure there is no official recession before November 2024... and is why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose." (There are economic issues, but these have been ongoing for years, and hell hasn't quite broken loose yet, so we can't give credit for this one.)
• "The US economy will continue to worsen (in 2024), collapse, the CBDC option will be used alongside the dollar. The SPR will be drained to almost empty to keep gas prices low and democrat friendly."
• Michael Yon: "Colombia will reinvigorate territorial claims on Panama. With China’s help — overt or covert — Colombia will eventually take Panama. Later China will take Panama from Colombia." (This one was posted in 2024, as an open-ended claim. But we're seeing nothing to indicate this two years later.)

Predictions by Year

Accumulated from assorted sources.

Prediction Timeline

2026

• Solid State Batteries - Donut Labs: Donut was to release a revolutionary new battery that exceeds all others used commercially by end Q1.

• The AI singularity - David Haggith: "The Deeper Dive: The Beast is Here! – According to numerous experts at the top of AI, the AI singularity—the moment that changes human history in an historic heartbeat—will be experienced this year.”

2027

• Death of General Motors: SAIC-GM agreement expires in June 2027, and GM along with it. It depends on SAIC/MG. If it doesn't renew its contract with GM, GM has no Chinese market, and goes bankrupt. If it does renew, GM becomes a marketing company because SAIC is more efficient, so GM plants will have to close.

• Wealth Taxes - Charles Hugh Smith: Governments that do not yet impose wealth taxes will do so, all out-sized unearned gains, from any source, anywhere on the planet.

2028

• "The Reset" - Ronald Bernard: The end of this way of life, the inevitable collapse and end of the current global financial, political, and social order.

• Batteries - Toyota: Toyota solid state batteries will hit the market, giving its vehicles 745 miles of range to start. (It seems they'll be beaten to the punch by other manufacturers who are already claiming such batteries.)

2030

• AI as Basic Utility: Artificial intelligence is predicted to become as fundamental as electricity, with AI assistants managing businesses and automating workflows.

• Workforce Disruption: Approximately 2 billion jobs could disappear, replaced by AI and automated systems.

• Democracy Legitimacy Crisis: Legitimacy of governments is expected to decline, with more authoritarian measures.

• Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Growth: By 2030, it is predicted that over 10% of global financial transactions will be conducted through Bitcoin or similar cryptocurrencies.

• Virtual Reality/Metaverse Integration: AR glasses are predicted to replace smartphones as the primary computing device.

• Medical Advancements: Automated medical diagnostics, AI health monitoring, and CRISPR-based gene editing are expected to be mainstream.

• Fragmenting Global Monetary System: A shift away from the US dollar as the sole reserve currency, leading to higher market volatility.

• Tech-lash and Privacy Wars: Rising public anger against large technology companies and data surveillance.

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